Kamala Harris Gets Good News After Week of Gloomy Polls

Vice President Kamala Harris received a positive swing state poll after a series of other surveys and forecasts have suggested Donald Trump is the current 2024 frontrunner.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll of 5,016 likely voters in the seven key battleground states have the vice president ahead of Trump in Georgia (51 percent to 47), Michigan (49 percent to 47), Pennsylvania (49 percent to 47) and Wisconsin (50 percent to 47).
Trump and Harris are tied at 48 percent in Nevada, with the Republican winning in North Carolina (50 percent to 47) and in Arizona (49 percent to 46).
Even if Trump wins Nevada, Harris would be on course to win November’s election with 286 Electoral College votes if the Washington Post-Schar School polling proves accurate.
The Washington Post-Schar School poll was conducted between September 30 and October 15. The margins of error in each state are between plus or minus 3.9 and 5 percentage points.
Newsweek has contacted Trump and Harris’ campaign teams for comment via email.
Trump has been gaining on Harris’ average polling lead, with three national surveys conducted last week showing the former president ahead of the Democratic candidate.
A Fox News national survey of 1,110 registered voters, conducted October 11-14, revealed Trump had a 50 percent to 48 lead over Harris. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A TIPP Insights poll of 1,254 likely voters showed Trump with a 2-point lead over Harris, 49 percent to 47. The survey was carried out October 17-19 and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 points.
And an Atlas Intel poll of 4,180 likely voters showed Trump with a 2-point lead in a head-to-head matchup (50 percent to 48). The survey was conducted October 12-17, and has a margin of error or 2 percentage points.
In the past few days, election forecasters Decision Desk HQ/The Hill and 538 had Trump as the favorite to win November’s race against Harris for the first time this election cycle.
The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill said on October 20 that Trump has a 52 percent chance of victory in November after he gained in polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as adding to his existing leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
And 538 designated Trump as the favorite to win over Harris on October 18, and is currently giving the Republican a 53 percent chance of victory.
Even with Trump the slight favorite, the site’s forecast model says that Trump and Harris are still essentially tied in Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada with two weeks left of the election campaign.
“Our overall characterization of the race—that it’s a toss-up—remains unchanged,” 538’s G. Elliot Morris wrote.
Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar model for his Silver Bulletin blog, also said last week that Trump was the favorite over Harris.
The Washington Post-Schar School poll results have a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points in Arizona, 4.5 in Georgia, 4.6 in Michigan, 4.8 in Nevada, 3.9 in North Carolina, 4.6 in Pennsylvania and 4.6 in Wisconsin.